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The 2024 hurricane season started slowly, with the first named storm, Alberto, forming in the Bay of Campeche the third week of June. By the end of June, both Beryl and Chris had formed. While Chris was a short-lived weak tropical storm in the southern Bay of Campeche, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the eastern Caribbean in early July. Beryl caused extensive damage across Grenada, hurricane conditions across southern Jamaica and the Cancun/Cozumel, MX areas, and made final landfall on the upper Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane on July 8th.
The El Niño, a warming of the Tropical Pacific which prevailed in 2023 is now officially gone. Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to drop to below normal levels. Current models indicate that there is a 70% chance or greater that a La Niña will develop by late summer. During a La Niña, hurricane activity is suppressed in the East Pacific, but development is enhanced in the Atlantic. This will be an enhancing factor for Atlantic hurricane activity this season.
Water temperatures and oceanic heat content across the Tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean Sea to Africa remain well above normal for this time of year. The warmer the water and the higher the oceanic heat content, the greater the potential for hurricanes to become stronger. This warm water could also allow for stronger westward moving hurricanes into the Caribbean this season.
An analog season is a season in the past with a similar setup of ocean temperatures and atmospheric flow patterns to what we are seeing at present. The thinking is that if the current state of the tropics closely matches that of a year in the past, then seasonal activity this season could be somewhat similar to the activity in the analog season in terms of numbers and tracks. For the July update, we have identified six analog seasons. Those seasons are 1995, 1998, 2010, 2011, 2020, and 2021. Together, these seasons averaged a total of 20 named storms with 10 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes. That’s well above the 30-year climatological average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. Analog seasons indicate an increased risk to the islands of the northeast Caribbean, the western Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the East U.S. Coast. Basically, most areas appear to be at an above-normal risk of a hurricane impact this season.
The July European model outlook is for an additional 16.2 named storms between August 1 and December, with 8.4 of them becoming hurricanes. The average number of named storms during this period is 14.2 with 7 of them becoming hurricanes. These numbers are a little below the June forecast. There is a downward trend with the July forecast.
The July track density forecast has less activity across the Caribbean than in the June forecast, but greater activity across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico.
The signals that were pointing to a very active hurricane season have not changed over the past month. Cool water temperature anomalies in the East and Central Pacific have developed over a large area. This is a sign that La Niña will almost certainly develop this summer. A La Niña pattern would inhibit hurricane activity in the Pacific while enhancing hurricane activity in the Tropical Atlantic. Models are predicting significantly enhanced rainfall across the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Tropical Atlantic all season long. The Caribbean Sea had been rather quiet in recent seasons due to dry, sinking air. That may not be the case this summer. Predictions of enhanced rainfall indicate a greater risk of hurricane activity in these areas.
One remaining question is whether the Azores-Bermuda High will be stronger than last season, as some models are predicting. This high center acts as a steering mechanism for developing storms in the Main Development Region east of the Caribbean. For the past several seasons, that high has been relatively weak, allowing many of the hurricanes to turn northward before reaching the Caribbean Sea. A stronger high center would tend to steer developing storms farther west and into the Caribbean. Latest models indicate that the Bermuda High will be stronger. This would pose an increasing risk of a hurricane landfall across all of the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the southeast U.S. coast.
For 2024, we have not changed our predicted numbers of named storms from 23, with 12 hurricanes, including 6 intense hurricanes. This means we are expecting an additional 20 named storms, with 11 of them becoming hurricanes and 5 additional intense hurricanes. Just about all areas will have an above-normal risk of a hurricane impact. In particular, the islands of the northeast Caribbean and the southeast U.S. from the middle Gulf Coast to the Carolinas may have a well above-normal risk of a hurricane impact.
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