2024 U.S. Winter Outlook

StormGeo forecasts a volatile winter season for potentially extreme weather events.

The main areas of concern for winter hazards across the United States are for:

• Enhanced risk for frequent winter storms across the Pacific Northwest
• Above normal snowfall across southern Canada, the Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley regions
• Extreme cold could occur at times.

Signals Influencing the Forecast

The forecast is strongly influenced by several long-range water temperature anomaly and technical signals across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The primary water temperature signal is the ongoing weak La Niña event across the eastern tropical Pacific. The colder than normal water temperatures usually result in colder and snowier weather over most of Canada and the northern U.S., and milder and drier trends over most of the southern U.S.

Temperature Outlook

We are projecting above normal temperatures across much of the southern and eastern U.S., but this does not tell the whole story. Extreme cold could result at times depending on the strength of the polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex could increase the risk of bitterly cold Arctic air pouring southward into the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard. This influx of cold Arctic air intermixed with milder Pacific air will likely result in an overall near to above normal temperature pattern. Below normal temperatures are expected across much of the northern U.S. and Canada.

Precipitation Outlook

Above normal precipitation is forecast across much of the northern U.S. and Canada. Expect more coastal storms along the Pacific Northwest and enhanced snow across the Central and Northern Rockies. Another area of above normal precipitation is forecast from the Tennessee Valley northward across the Great Lakes and eastward over southeastern Canada into the interior northeast U.S. Below normal precipitation is forecast across much of the southern U.S. and Mexico.

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